Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC research economist
September 2024 sees record labor force levels and strong wage growth in the Prescott MSA
Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.
In September 2024, the seasonally adjusted civilian labor force grew by 30 people, reaching 110,630—its highest level this year. Despite lower participation in May and June, recent months have shown steady over-the-month growth, pointing to renewed workforce engagement and a positive trend in labor force expansion.
In the Prescott MSA, seasonally adjusted resident employment declined slightly in September, dropping by 29 to 106,985 from August. Employment began the year closer to 106,000 and has gradually moved toward the 107,000 range, reflecting modest growth this year.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment increased by 59 in September, reaching 3,645. Over recent months, unemployment has shown a gradual upward trend, rising from 3,434 in June to nearly 3,600 by August and continuing to rise.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also increased by 0.1 percentage point in September, reaching 3.3%. Mirroring the rise in unemployment, the rate moved up from 3.1% in June to 3.2% in July and August, now reaching its highest point since March.
Non-seasonally adjusted hourly earnings have demonstrated strong annual growth recently, rising 7.1% from last September to $26.39. July and August had similar gains, rising 3.3% to $26.19 and 6.8% to $26.47, respectively. The September rate equates to an annual full-time salary of around $54,900.
Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll jobs have been relatively steady throughout the year, with September showing a slight over-the-month increase of 200 to 71,500. In comparison, Arizona employment increased by 11,200 to 3,271,500, and the US gained 254,000 to 159,105,000.
Non-seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs saw a slight 1.4% increase over the year to 71,900. Of the industries, State and Local Government saw the largest employment growth, rising 6.3% over the year to 10,100. On the other hand, Professional and Business Services saw the largest decrease, with employment declining 3.1% over the year to 6,200. Other gains occurred in Federal Government (5.3%); Private Education and Health Services (2.4%); Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (2.2%); and Mining, Logging, and Construction (1.4%). Losses also occurred in Leisure and Hospitality (-1.9%), while no changes were observed in Manufacturing, Information, Financial Activities, and Other Services.
Retail sales less food and gasoline saw modest gains in June, increasing by 1.7% year over year. However, both July and August showed declines, falling by 4.3% to $250,324,956 and 4.5% to $250,196,952, respectively.
Recent months have shown strong over-the-year performance for housing permits in the Prescott MSA, with permits in September rising 5.8% over the year to 127, and single-family permits rising 24.0% to 119. Notably, July saw an extreme 174.3% over-the-year growth, more than doubling the number of housing permits from last July to 277. Of those, 168 were single-family, representing a 73.2% over-the-year increase. August had mixed growth rates, with total permits rising 8.0% to 148 while single-family permits declined 3.9% to 122.
Exhibit 1: Prescott MSA Monthly Economic Indicators
