Jennifer Pullen, Senior Research Economist EBRC
May 5, 2019 – Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tucson economy posted the strongest growth in the past decade. Employment gains were at a 13 year high of 1.9% in 2019 (see figure 1), GDP outpaced the nation, and wages increased by 4.1% between 2018 and 2019. As the economy now moves into a COVID-19 induced recession many individuals are anxious to remove the stay-at-home and business closure policies to restart the economy.
Figure 1: Employment Growth Fuel Gauge
As the national discussion moves towards reopening the economy it is important to look at what steps may be necessary to do that in a responsible way from both a healthcare and economic perspective. A recent report released by the American Enterprise Institute lays out a general road map for reopening that has been cited often. Many of the phases and ideas documented in this road map align with what many of the nation’s prominent epidemiologists are recommending, particularly in Phase I. U.S., state, and local government plans often align with these general signposts, but with modifications designed to reflect local conditions and concerns.
Phase I identified by the “Road Map to Reopening” is where the majority of the states in the nation currently find themselves. This is the point where our government works to slow the transmission of COVID-19 by reducing the spread of infection, increases testing capacity, and ensures our healthcare system does not become overloaded. The steps outlined in Phase I to reduce the spread of infection include maintaining physical distancing through closing community gathering spaces, allowing telework for nonessential employees, limiting domestic and international travel, and issuing stay-at-home orders for areas where transmission is rampant.
To read more about the tied phases outlined in the Road Map to Reopening article or to learn more about Pima County’s criteria for reducing COVID-19 restrictions visit the MAP Dashboard.
