by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
Current Data Releases as of 01 March 2019
Real GDP by state increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3% in Arizona for the 3rd quarter 2018, placing the state behind only Washington (5.8%) and Utah (4.4%). Real GDP increased in 49 states with West Virginia unchanged (0.0%) according to the February 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) was flat in January with zero monthly change on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was the third month in a row that energy prices declined, which offset rising prices for food and all other items. The index for food increased 0.2% and the index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2% for the month. The inflation rate for January was 1.6%, the smallest 12-month increase since June 2017 according to the February 13 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
The share of homes affordable to median earners moved lower in all Arizona metropolitan areas for the fourth quarter 2018. U.S. housing affordability remained close to a ten-year low according to the February 14 National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index release. Nationally, 56.6% of new and existing homes bought in the fourth quarter were affordable for families earning a median income of $71,900. This was just 0.2 percentage points higher than the third quarter. Flagstaff had the biggest decrease in the share of homes affordable for median income from one quarter to the next, placing affordability at 46.0%, compared to 58.3% in the third quarter. Flagstaff did not have the lowest affordability in the state; however, Prescott did at 43.5%. Sierra Vista-Douglas had the largest share of affordable homes in the state at 80.8% followed by Yuma at 76.3%, Tucson at 65.1%, and Lake Havasu City-Kingman at 61.4% – all of which had a higher share than the U.S. Phoenix, at 56.1%, fell just below the nation.
Employment increased in 295 of the 349 largest counties in the nation between September 2017 and September 2018 according to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) February 20 release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The largest increase in employment was in Midland, TX, which shot up 11.9%. Pima and Maricopa did not do quite that well, but did have increases of 1.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Average weekly wage increased 3.7% for Pima and 2.5% for Maricopa between third quarter 2017 and third quarter 2018.
Phoenix house price increases continued to be among the highest in the nation in December with a year-over-year increase of 8.0%. Based on the December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released February 26, Las Vegas house prices increased the most over the year at 11.4%, followed by Phoenix and Atlanta at 5.9%. House prices in San Diego increase only 2.3%, which was the lowest amount among the 20-city composite. U.S. national prices increased 4.7% over the last 12 months, down from 5.1% reported the prior month, and the 20-city composite gained 4.2%.
House prices in Arizona rose 8.2% between the fourth quarters of 2017 and 2018 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) February 26 release. This placed Arizona fifth among all states for annual house price appreciation based on a seasonally adjusted purchase-only index. Idaho and Nevada had the highest appreciation among states at 11.9% and 11.2%, respectively. Prices rose in all states, with North Dakota and Connecticut gaining less than 1.0% over the year. House prices increased 5.7% for the nation during that time. The FHFA release includes metropolitan areas based on an all-transactions index (which includes both purchase and refinance mortgages). Annual appreciation for Arizona metros: Flagstaff 5.8%, Lake Havasu City-Kingman 9.3%, Phoenix 9.8%, Prescott Valley-Prescott 10.1%, Sierra Vista-Douglas 6.8%, Tucson 7.6%, and Yuma 4.3%.
Real GDP for the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the 4th quarter 2018 according to the “initial” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28. The 3rd quarter real GDP rose 3.4%. The next GDP release will be March 28, which will contain updated 4th quarter figures.
