By EBRC Research Staff
Goods and services deficit nearly doubles since last January
The January goods and services trade deficit came in at $131.4 billion in January, up $33.3 billion from a revised $98.1 billion in December. January exports increased by $3.3 billion from December to $269.8 billion, and January imports rose $36.6 billion over the month to $401.2 billion. The increase in the deficit reflects an increase in the goods deficit of $33.5 billion to $156.8 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.2 billion to $25.4 billion. Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased by $64.5 billion, or 96.5%, from January 2024. Exports increased 4.1%, or $10.6 billion, and imports increased 23.1%, or $75.2 billion. The largest surpluses, in billions, occurred with Netherlands ($4.3), South and Central America ($4.3), and Belgium ($0.6), and the greatest deficits were with China ($29.7), European Union ($25.5), and Switzerland ($22.8). -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
U.S. total nonfarm employment grew 151,000 in February compared to the average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months. Notable job gains were in health care (+52,000), financial activities (+21,000), transportation and warehousing (+18,000), and social assistance (+11,000). Most other industries changed little over the month, though federal government employment declined by 10,000. The national unemployment rate for February was 4.1%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has remained between 4.0% and 4.2% since May 2024 according to the March 7 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment release. -Valorie Rice
The annual average unemployment rate for 2024 increased in 21 states, while the remaining 29 states (including Arizona) did not report a statistically significant change in their jobless rates. Rhode Island had the largest unemployment rate increase for 2024, moving up 1.3 percentage points. The lowest reported unemployment rate for the year was South Dakota at 1.8%, while Nevada had the highest at 5.6%. Arizona, at 3.6%, was among the 24 states with unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.0%. Arizona and Pennsylvania also set new series lows in 2024. The annual average of 3.6% was the smallest figure either state has posted since the series began in 1976. -Valorie Rice
The U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.2% over the month in February (seasonally adjusted). That was down from the 0.5% increase in January. All-items inflation hit 2.8% in February, down slightly from January (3.0%). Shelter prices rose 0.3% over the month in February, driving nearly half of the monthly all-items increase. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) was 3.1% over the year. Food inflation was 2.6%, with egg prices still elevated. The Phoenix all-items index rose 1.8% over the year in February. -George Hammond
The U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Producer prices were up 0.6% in January. Over the year, final demand prices were up 3.2%. Prices for processed goods for intermediate demand were up 0.3% over the year, while unprocessed goods prices for intermediate demand were up 10.5% (egg prices led increases). Prices for unprocessed goods other than food and energy were up 7.2% over the year in February. -George Hammond
The January 2025 release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report stated that the number of job openings in the U.S. was little changed to 7.7 million, with a job openings rate of 4.6% for the month. Real estate and rental and leasing saw the largest increase in openings, adding 46,000 jobs. Nationally, the number of hires was unchanged at 5.4 million, with a rate of 3.4% for January, 3.4% for December, and 3.3% for November. The number of total separations in the nation was little changed at 5.3 million, with a rate of 3.3%. The number of quits was little changed at 3.3 million with a rate of 2.1%. The number of layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.6 million and a rate of 1.0%. -Alex Jaeger
Total nonfarm employment in Arizona decreased by 5,400 jobs over the year in January, with the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increasing to 3.9% from 3.8% in December. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 4.0% from 4.1% last month. Arizona non-seasonally adjusted unemployment decreased by 40,700, beating the pre-pandemic (2010-2019) average of -51,000 jobs. Employment gains were recorded in Private Educational Services (500), and Natural Resources and Mining (100). Employment losses were recorded in Trade, transportation, and Utilities (-18,900), Government (-5,800), Health Care and Social Assistance (-4,400), Professional and Business Services (-4,000), Manufacturing (-2,500), Financial Activities (-2,500), Leisure and Hospitality (-1,800), Construction (-600), Other Services (-500), and Information (-300). -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
