EBRC Research Staff
Current data releases as of 28 February 2025
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data for the third quarter of 2024. These data cover the nation, states, metropolitan areas, and counties. Arizona average weekly wages rose by 5.5% over the year in September 2024, ranking the state sixth in the nation (including the District of Columbia). Arizona wage growth was outpaced by Wyoming (6.5%), the District of Columbia (6.3%), Hawaii (5.8%), Massachusetts (5.6%), and Washington (5.6%). Rhode Island (2.5%), Michigan (3.0%), and New Jersey (3.2%) posted the slowest gains.
Maricopa County jobs rose 0.1% over the year in September, ranking seventh among the 10 largest counties in the nation. Miami-Dade County, Florida posted the fastest growth (1.5%) and Dallas County, Texas posted the lowest (-1.1%). Maricopa County performed better in wage growth, with average weekly wages up 5.1% over the year. King County, Washington registered the fastest gain (6.8%) and Dallas County, Texas had the slowest at 2.9%. –George Hammond
Phoenix house prices decreased slightly over the month in December but showed a 2.1% increase on a year-to-year basis. Nationally, house prices increased 3.9% over the year in December, based on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The 20-city composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, slightly higher than last month’s figure of 4.3%. Phoenix and national home prices both decreased in December but showed increased over-the-year growth rates, reflecting lower base effects. The 10-city composite saw an annual increase of 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. New York for the eighth consecutive month posted the largest increase among the 20 cities with a 7.2% increase in December, followed by Chicago and Boston at 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.1%. -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
National house prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 were up 4.5% over the year, based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Arizona’s house price gains were considerably lower than the nation’s, with an annual appreciation of 1.2%, ranking 49th among all states and the District of Columbia. Only Louisiana (0.5%) and Mississippi (-0.2%) were lower. The northeastern part of the U.S. posted the largest gains in house prices over the year, with the Middle Atlantic gaining 7.1% and New England 7.0%. States with the highest annual appreciation were from those areas, save one, with the top five being Connecticut at 8.3%, New Jersey at 8.3%, Wyoming at 8.3%, Vermont at 8.1%, and Rhode Island at 7.6%. FHFA data for the states and the U.S. reports seasonally adjusted purchase-only data. Metropolitan area data are available for the all-transactions index, which includes purchases and refinanced mortgages. Annual gains in house prices for Arizona metropolitan areas ranged from 6.2% in Sierra Vista-Douglas to 2.3% in Tucson. Other areas in Arizona reporting were Yuma at 4.6%, Flagstaff at 3.8%, Phoenix at 3.1%, Lake Havasu City-Kingman at 3.0%, and Prescott Valley-Prescott at 2.6%. For comparison, the all-transaction price changes for the U.S. and Arizona during the fourth quarter of 2024 were 5.4% and 3.2%, respectively. -Valorie Rice
In January, Arizona over the year building permits saw a notable 34.1% decrease to 3672, not seasonally adjusted. The number of single-family units similarly fell 6.2% to 3380. The Phoenix metropolitan area accounted for most of the permits in the state, with 2687 total permits and 2493 single-family permits, representing over-the-year decreases of 69.4% and 9.1%, respectively. The Tucson MSA similarly observed declines over the year, with total permits falling 15.8% to 353 and single-family permits falling 17.0% to 292. Of the counties, Coconino, Gila, Graham, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, and Santa Cruz all saw over the year increases, while Apache, Cochise, La Paz, Maricopa, Pima, Yavapai, and Yuma observed losses. No over-the-year changes occurred in Greenlee County. -Delaney O’Kray-Murphy
In the fourth quarter of 2024, a U.S. family earning the median income of $97,800 would need 37% of their income to afford the mortgage for a median-priced existing home according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index. This was slightly better than the third quarter of 2024 when the index indicated 38% was needed. The increase in affordability was due to declining existing house prices from one quarter to the next. Affordability in Tucson matched that of the nation for the fourth quarter of 2024, with 37% of a family’s income going to pay a mortgage on a median-priced house, while it would take a bit more in Phoenix, at 39%. While the index dropped one percentage point between the third and fourth quarters nationally, it went up one percentage point for both Phoenix and Tucson, signaling lowered affordability. The most affordable areas in the nation were Decatur, IL, at 16% followed by Springfield, IL, at 17%. In comparison, the least affordable area in the country remained in California with 87% of a typical family’s income going towards a mortgage in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA metro area. -Valorie Rice
U.S. real GDP rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024 (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the second of three prints from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The third and final print for the fourth quarter will be available on March 27. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter decelerated from 3.1% in the third. Growth in the final quarter of 2024 primarily reflected increases in consumer and government spending. Those gains were partly offset by a decrease in investment spending (inventories, residential and nonresidential structures, capital equipment). Net exports (exports minus imports) were roughly flat over the quarter. Real GDP is the value of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., after adjustment for inflation. –George Hammond
According to the February 19th State Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report, the job opening rate decreased in five states and was little changed in all other states. The job opening rates for Arizona were 5.0% in December, 5.7% in November, and 5.0% in October. The number of job openings decreased in eight states and were little changed in all other states. The largest decreases in the number of job openings were seen in California (-117,000) and Florida (-73,000). Hire rates increased in two states and were little changed in all other states. The hire rates for Arizona were 3.7% for December, 3.5% for November, and 3.3% for October. The number of hires increased in two states and changed little in all others. The largest increases in hire levels were in Pennsylvania (+32,000) and Utah (+16,000). The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in two states, increased in three states, and were little changed in all other states. Nationally, the layoffs and discharge rates were little changed. -Alex Jaeger
