By Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC Research Economist
Arizona gained 62,533 residents from domestic net migration in 2023, ranking it 5th
In 2023, over 7.5 million Americans moved between states or the District of Columbia, as reported by the 1-year American Community Survey (ACS). Florida led the nation in domestic inmigration, receiving 636,933 new residents, followed closely by Texas, with 611,942, and California, with 422,075. At the same time, California saw the highest outmigration, losing 690,127 residents, while Florida and New York followed with 510,925 and 481,544, respectively. Net migration trends reveal Texas (133,372), Florida (126,008), and North Carolina (106,592) as the states with the largest population gains from domestic migration.
Exhibit 1 illustrates 2023 annual net domestic migration patterns, highlighting the inflows and outflows that shape each state’s position. States like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina stand out for their strong net inflows, which could be attributed to warmer climates and lower housing costs. In contrast, California and New York, the two largest sources of outmigration, continue to experience population declines, potentially tied to their high costs of living and expensive housing.
Exhibit 1: Annual Domestic Net Migration by State With Inflows and Outflows, Persons 1+, 2023 ACS State-To-State
According to ACS data, Arizona experienced a net gain of 62,533 residents from domestic migration in 2023, ranking the state 5th in that measure. California contributed the largest number of migrants to Arizona, with 54,222 individuals relocating, followed by Texas, with 16,779, and Washington, with 12,844. Conversely, Arizona sent the most migrants to California (21,152), Texas (19,900), and Colorado (12,378). Overall, Arizona experienced net outmigration to 17 states and the District of Columbia, with the most significant loss to Colorado, resulting in a net decrease of 4,034 residents. California not only sent the most migrants to Arizona but also represented Arizona’s largest net domestic migration gain, with 33,070.
Exhibit 2 illustrates the 2023 annual domestic net migration to Arizona, segmented by inflows and outflows. The data reveal that Arizona attracted migrants from colder states like New York, Michigan, Illinois, Washington, and Iowa, as well as from areas of high mobility, such as California and Florida. Arizona’s appealing climate, affordable living costs, and expanding economy may attract residents from regions with harsher climates and higher expenses.
On the other hand, Arizona experienced net outmigration to states like Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, and Alabama. Colorado boasts temperate natural beauty, a thriving economy, and progressive policies that appeal to many seeking a balanced quality of life. Texas, while sharing a similar climate with Arizona, stands out with its booming economy and rich cultural diversity. Meanwhile, North Carolina and Alabama continue to attract retirees and professionals drawn to their slower pace of life and proximity to East Coast hubs.
Exhibit 2: Annual Domestic Net Migration to Arizona by State With Inflows and Outflows, Persons 1+, 2023 ACS State-To-State
Another way to measure a state's migratory strength is by examining domestic churn, or the ratio of inflows to outflows among domestic migrants. A churn rate above one indicates positive net migration, while a rate below one reflects negative net migration. Exhibit 3 visualizes these domestic churn rates across U.S. states, grouped into five equal quintiles. Notably, Arizona ranks in the top quintile, alongside states like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina, which consistently demonstrate strong migratory appeal. Arizona also stands out regionally, ranking above all its neighboring states and highlighting its ability to attract residents.
Interestingly, North Dakota, South Carolina, and North Carolina posted the highest churn rates. North Dakota’s position may seem surprising given its smaller population, but it likely reflects a unique balance of modest inflows and very low outflows. South Carolina and North Carolina, on the other hand, appear to be part of a broader trend of population growth in the Southeast, potentially driven by lower living costs and warmer climates.
Conversely, California, New York, and Illinois exhibit the lowest churn rates, underscoring their status as dominant outmigration hubs. In these states, high housing costs, taxes, climate, or urban density may outweigh their traditional draws, such as job availability and cultural amenities. This trend highlights a stark divide between states retaining or growing their populations and those struggling to stem significant outflows.
Exhibit 3: Annual Domestic Migration Churn Ratio by State, Persons 1+, 2023 ACS State-to-State
The most significant state-to-state migration flow in 2023 was from California to Texas, with 93,970 Californians relocating to the Lone Star State. Exhibit 4 highlights the top ten largest state-to-state migration flows; the flow from California to Arizona ranked fifth, with 54,222 Californians moving. Exhibit 4 underscores the substantial outflows from California and New York, which account for six of the top ten outflows. Furthermore, Pennsylvania emerges as a key destination, attracting residents from New York and New Jersey. Additionally, the flows between Florida and Georgia stand out, ranking fourth and seventh among the top flows, with Florida sending more residents to Georgia than it received in return.
Exhibit 4: Top Ten Flows, Annual Domestic Migration, Persons 1+, 2023 ACS State-To-State
Compared to 2023, domestic migration was higher in 2022, with 8,230,953 individuals moving between states. Arizona ranked slightly higher in net migration that year, gaining 77,995 domestic net migrants and placing fourth overall. Florida (249,064), Texas (174,261), and North Carolina (82,160) led the nation in net domestic migration, while California (-341,866), New York (-244,137), and Illinois (-115,719) saw the largest net outflows. Exhibit 5 highlights 2022 net state-to-state domestic migration, revealing patterns that closely resemble those in Exhibit 1 for 2023. The similarities between these layouts underscore how larger macroeconomic factors—such as housing affordability, tax policies, and warmer climates—continue to drive migration flows.
Exhibits 1, 2, and 5 are organized using the Natural Jenks classification method. This method maximizes differences between groups while minimizing variation within each group, effectively clustering similar values for clearer visual interpretation. Exhibit 1 (2023) and Exhibit 5 (2022) highlight dense migration inflows to states like Texas, Florida, the Carolinas, and Arizona, while also illustrating significant outflows from California and New York. Arizona stands out as a top destination in its region across both years, attracting more migrants than neighboring states like Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and California. These exhibits vividly capture Arizona’s growing appeal, particularly compared to its regional peers.
Exhibit 5: Annual Domestic Net Migration by State With Inflows and Outflows, Persons 1+, 2022 ACS State-To-State
Ultimately, the 2023 ACS migration data indicates how the interplay of housing affordability, economic opportunities, and lifestyle preferences can shape population movement. Arizona’s continued success in attracting residents underscores its growing appeal as a regional hub. Meanwhile, persistent outmigration from states like California and New York highlights challenges tied to affordability. These insights not only inform current migration trends but also provide a valuable lens for anticipating future shifts and guiding state-level policies.
