Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC Research Economist
Arizona ranked 7th in net domestic migration, gaining nearly 37,000 more residents than it lost
In 2022, Arizona attracted 223,000 domestic in-migrants, accounting for 3.2% of all domestic migration nationwide, according to IRS data, positioning Arizona as the eighth most popular state for domestic movers. Over the same period, 186,286 residents relocated out of Arizona, resulting in a net gain of 36,714 people from domestic migration alone, ranking the state seventh in net domestic migration.
Florida led the nation in net domestic migration with a gain of 244,330 residents, followed by Texas, 181,903, and North Carolina, 82,870. Notably, these totals only contain individuals with income. Exhibit 1 shows that Texas and Florida were the most favorable destinations for in-migrants, while California and New York were the top states sending people elsewhere. Strikingly, Arizona stands apart from its immediate neighbors, which saw lower net rates of domestic migration. Exhibit 1 highlights this difference, showing that Arizona attracted more migrants than states like Nevada and New Mexico, emphasizing its distinct appeal.
Exhibit 1: Annual Domestic Net Migration by State With Inflows and Outflows, Persons With Income of $1 or More, 2021-2022 IRS SOI
Arizona netted 36,841 residents through domestic migration in 2022. The greatest influx came from California, with 57,857 Californians relocating to Arizona, followed by 16,600 from Washington and 14,401 from Texas. Conversely, Arizona saw the most domestic outmigration to California, Texas, and Florida, with 25,677, 20,474, and 9,783 residents moving to these states, respectively.
Exhibit 2 provides an overview of Arizona’s domestic migration, detailing net flow patterns. Compared to Exhibit 1, it becomes evident that Arizona tends to gain residents from states with relatively lower net migration overall, such as California and Illinois, while losing residents to states with higher net migration, such as Florida and Texas. It is also important to note that the state-level IRS data includes individuals without reported income, creating a slight variation in net domestic migration figures between exhibits. Washington and Illinois also stand out as significant sources of new Arizona residents, contributing significantly to its net domestic migration.
Exhibit 2: Annual Domestic Net Migration With Inflows and Outflows for Arizona by State, 2021–2022 IRS SOI
IRS data also enable a closer look at migration patterns at the county level. Los Angeles County in California contributed the most migrants to Arizona, with 11,558 people relocating, followed by San Diego County with 8,433, and Riverside County with 6,311. In contrast, Arizona saw its highest domestic outmigration to Los Angeles, with 4,466 residents moving there, followed closely by San Diego at 4,334 and Clark County, Nevada, at 4,199. Exhibit 3 highlights the counties that sent the most net domestic migrants to Arizona. Totals may not sum correctly due to disclosure limitations in the IRS data. Interestingly, Arizona draws migrants from other large metropolitan regions, including San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago, Portland, and Detroit. The influx from northern metro areas further suggests a trend of skilled labor migration toward Arizona’s warmer climate.
Exhibit 3: Annual Domestic Net Migration With Inflows and Outflows for Arizona by U.S. County, 2021-2022 IRS SOI
Shifting to where people choose to settle within Arizona, the counties receiving the most net domestic migration from other states were Maricopa, Pinal, and Mohave, with 18,884, 4,957, and 4,405 new residents, respectively. Exhibit 4 illustrates the concentration of net domestic migration into these counties, underscoring the migration into Arizona’s major metropolitan areas. This pattern supports the notion that many skilled workers are relocating to Arizona for high-level employment opportunities in the state’s urban centers, particularly Tucson and Phoenix.
Exhibit 4: Annual Domestic Net Migration With Inflows and Outflows by Arizona County, 2021-2022 IRS SOI
The data in Exhibits 1 through 4 are grouped visually using Natural Jenks, which organize values into distinct groups by minimizing the differences within each group while maximizing the differences between groups. This means that areas with closely clustered values are grouped together, while more distinct outliers are placed in separate categories. The result is a visual representation that highlights trends and outliers in the data, making it easier to identify regions of significant difference, particularly around the median. This method provides a clear color differentiation between areas, allowing for an intuitive interpretation of the data distribution.
Maricopa and Pima counties stand out as key destinations within Arizona, with Maricopa centered around the Phoenix metropolitan area and Pima encompassing Tucson. Exhibit 5 presents the top ten U.S. counties contributing new residents to Maricopa and Pima and the primary destinations for residents leaving these counties. Many of the top sources of new residents—and destinations for those leaving—are in neighboring California, reflecting the strong interconnectedness between Arizona’s metropolitan regions and those of Southern California.
Exhibit 5: Top Ten Annual County Inflows and Outflows for Maricopa and Pima Counties, 2021–2022 IRS SOI
An intriguing aspect of the IRS data is its breakdown of migration by income level. Exhibit 6 visualizes Arizona’s domestic migration by income brackets, with hue saturation representing the proportion of domestic migrants in each range. While most migration to Arizona clusters around the $25,000–$50,000 income range, there’s a notable increase in domestic migration within the $100,000–$200,000 range. This suggests an additional pull for higher-income individuals, possibly attracted by Arizona’s job market, quality of life, or tax environment.
Exhibit 6: Arizona Annual Domestic Inflows and Outflows by Income Bracket, Shaded by Concentration, 2021-2022 IRS SOI
