Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC research economist
Nonfarm jobs performing consistently well in the second quarter
Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.
In June 2024, the seasonally adjusted civilian labor force in the Prescott MSA grew by 0.9% over the year, reaching 110,392. Throughout 2024, all months have shown positive over-the-year growth, with March and April showing the highest increases of 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively.
Seasonally adjusted resident employment in the Prescott MSA has experienced a similar trend to labor force growth, showing a 1.3% over-the-year increase in June to 106,958. All months in 2024 have shown positive employment growth, with June showing the largest increase.
The beginning of the year was challenging for Prescott MSA’s seasonally adjusted unemployment numbers. However, May finally broke the streak of increasing unemployment, with a 4.3% over-the-year decrease in unemployment, bringing the total down to 3,421. June furthered the trend with a 9.0% decrease over the year, landing at 3,434.
Additionally, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been decreasing throughout the year, falling from 3.6% in January to 3.1% in April, where it has remained since. June also shows considerable over the year improvement, decreasing by 0.3 percentage points.
Non-seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings in June broke their streak of over-the-year decreases, rising 0.4% to $25.61. Each other month in 2024 has shown over-the-year decreases. The June hourly rate translates to an annual full-time salary of approximately $53,268.
Total nonfarm jobs have shown steady over-the-year growth throughout 2024. In June, the number of non-seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs hit 70,400, a 1.3% increase over last year. In comparison, Arizona gained 66,200 to reach 3,208,500, a 2.1% over-the-year increase, and the US gained 2,550,000 over the year to hit 159,392,000, a 1.6% increase.
Financial activities jobs showed the most significant percentage change over the year in June, coming in at a 7.7% increase to 2,800, non-seasonally adjusted. Professional and Business services, on the other hand, saw the largest decrease, falling 4.6% over the year to 6,200. Other gains occurred in Government (5.8%); Other Services (4.0%); Private Education and Health Services (2.5%); and Trade Transportation, and Utilities (1.5%). Losses also occurred in Leisure and Hospitality (-1.9%), while no changes were observed in Information; Manufacturing; or Mining, Logging, and Construction.
Retail sales less food and gasoline saw modest gains in May, increasing by 0.5% over the year to $267,067,629. In contrast, April was the only month this year to experience a year-over-year decline, with sales dropping by 1.7% to $262,631,194.
While the first quarter of the year has shown strong performance for housing permits in the Prescott MSA, the second quarter has shown more varied performance. April and June experienced declines in the total number of permits, dropping by 19.1% and 17.7%, respectively. May, on the other hand, saw significant growth with a 58.6% over-the-year increase. Single-family units started the quarter strong, with year-over-year growths of 70.4% and 52.7% in April and May, but fell slightly with a decline of 13.8% in June.
Exhibit 1: Prescott MSA Monthly Economic Indicators
