By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., Director and Research Professor, EBRC
U.S. Employment Situation September 2020
According to the latest Employment Situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. added 661,000 jobs over the month in September, as the economy continued to recover but at a declining rate (Exhibit 1). Leisure and hospitality, retail trade, health care and social assistance, and professional and business services led gains. State and local government education jobs fell.
Exhibit 1: U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Job Growth, Net Change Over-the-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
The U.S. (U-3) unemployment fell for the fifth straight month in September, reaching 7.9% (Exhibit 2). However, the rate remained 4.4 percentage points above February. The number of unemployed residents was 68 million above February.
The unemployment rate decline in September was primarily driven by a drop in the labor force, as unemployed residents stopped actively seeking work. The count of residents not in the labor force rose by 879,000 over the month.
Exhibit 2: Arizona and U.S. Official (U-3) Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
Alternative measures of labor underutilization also fell in September. The U-6 rate, the broadest measure published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fell from 14.2% in August to 12.8% in September. For more on alternative measures of unemployment see this blog post: Measuring Job Loss and Unemployment.
High Frequency Update
Initial claims for regular unemployment insurance in Arizona fell slightly for the week ended September 26, to 8,208. Initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rose again to 220,156. Beginning with data for the week ended July 25, EBRC now reports data on PUA claims published by the U.S. Department of Labor. These data reflect an effort to exclude claims that are believed to be obviously fraudulent and are much lower than the raw claims data published by the Arizona Department of Employment Security.
The Arizona Department of Employment Security reports that total unemployment insurance benefits paid from early March through September 26 totaled $11.4 billion. The unemployment insurance trust fund balance stands at $273.5 million. The trust fund pays regular state benefits, which totaled $44.5 million last week.
National initial claims for regular unemployment insurance fell to 786,942 for the week ended September 26. Initial claims for PUA rose to 650,120.
The U.S. hotel occupancy rate remained stuck just below 50% for the week ended September 26, at 48.7%. That was 31.7% below year ago.
TSA traveler throughput plateaued near 5.0 million passengers and has remained there for the past three months. This lack of progress is now being reflected in airline layoffs.
U.S. movie ticket sales dropped for the second straight week for the week ended September 24. Sales dropped below $10 million for the first time in a month. New movie releases declined slightly last week, to 26.
After steady improvement, seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app slowed nationally and in Arizona in recent weeks. The Phoenix metropolitan area showed continued improvement for the week ended September 26.
Google Maps data for travel to retail and recreation places remains under revision, with no new data to report.
New business applications in Arizona fell slightly for the week ended September 26, to 570. Even so, applications were up 21.3% over the year. The 52-week average was 7.9% above year ago last week.
Find all measures discussed in the High Frequency Update on our COVID-19 Tracking Economic Impacts page.
