By George W. Hammond, Ph.D., director and research professor, EBRC
June 5, 2020 – Spending for transportation; movies and restaurants; and entertainment and recreation remains very depressed, but other sectors are gradually improving
One of the most important indicators to track during the recovery will be consumer spending. In the past, it has been hard to come by high-frequency data on this topic, but the situation is gradually improving. Harvard University’s Opportunity Insights project now offers an Economic Tracker with high-frequency data for states and metropolitan areas across a range of topics, including consumer spending.
The consumer spending data shown below reflect card-based transactions, which includes both debit and credit cards. Since these are card-based transactions, they include online purchases.
The graphs depict the percentage change in the value of transactions in total and broken out by type. All percent changes are relative to early January 2020.
See the latest data below and check their website for the live graphics and extensive documentation.
Overall, these data suggest that the hardest hit sectors were, as expected, entertainment and recreation; restaurants and movies; and transportation (think transportation expenses).
Apparel and merchandise spending was also hit, but keep in mind that this measure excludes most vehicle purchases.
Health care spending dropped significantly, as many doctor and dentist offices shut down.
Spending on groceries was up strongly, with a big surge initially as consumers stocked their pantries.
The good news, such as it is, is that spending has risen from the bottom of mid-April. Consumer spending overall is down roughly 20% from early January (as of May 10), which is an improvement over the 30% drop in mid-April.
Transportation; movies and restaurants; and entertainment and recreation remain very depressed. Apparel and general merchandise have improved a bit recently, as has health care. Grocery purchases remain strong.
Exhibit 1: All Consumer Spending, Card-Based Transactions
Exhibit 2: Grocery, Card-Based Transactions
Exhibit 3: Transportation, Card-Based Transactions
Exhibit 4: Apparel and General Merchandise, Card-Based Transactions
Exhibit 5: Health Care, Card-Based Transactions
Exhibit 6: Entertainment and Recreation, Card-Based Transactions
Exhibit 7: Restaurants and Movies, Card-Based Transactions
