by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
Current data releases as of 25 October 2019
Home prices in Phoenix increased 5.8 percent over-the-year in July. This placed Phoenix as the top spot for house price gains followed by Las Vegas at 4.7 percent and Charlotte at 4.6 percent. At the other end of the spectrum, home prices decreased 0.6 percent in Seattle. Nationally prices had an annual gain of 3.2 percent and the 20-city composite rose 2.0 over-the-year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices September 24 release.
Arizona job growth was 2.3 percent over-the-year in September, nearly a full percentage point higher than U.S. growth of 1.4 percent. The October 17 Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity release indicated that construction had the most job gains over-the-year followed closely by education and health services. Government was the only industry reporting a decrease in jobs. Employment growth for Arizona metro areas in September: Flagstaff 0.1 percent, Phoenix 2.4 percent, Lake Havasu City-Kingman 1.9 percent, Tucson 1.9 percent, Prescott 1.8 percent, Yuma 0.7 percent, and Sierra Vista-Douglas 1.5 percent. Arizona’s unemployment rate moved down to 4.9 percent for September after ticking up to 5.0 percent in August. This is still higher than the U.S. unemployment rate of 3.5 percent.
The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Shelter and food price increases offset a decline in the indexes for energy and used cars and trucks. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent. The Bureau of Labor Statistics October 10 release indicated that the annual inflation rate was 1.7 percent in September.
There were 1,350 bankruptcy filings in Arizona during September, an increase of 8.4 percent over the same month a year ago. Year-to-date, bankruptcies are up 4.5 percent in the state with filings increasing 6.1 percent for the Phoenix office, 0.7 percent for the Tucson office and 0.7 percent for the Yuma office. The Phoenix office includes Apache, Coconino, Gila, Maricopa, Navajo, and Yavapai counties. The Tucson office handles Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties, while the Yuma office represents La Paz, Mohave, and Yuma counties.
The U.S. unemployment rate moved down 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 percent in September. The last time it was that low was December 1969. U.S. total nonfarm employment increased by 136,000 in September. July and August employment numbers had upward revisions. After revisions, job growth averaged 157,000 per month over the last three months. Industries with the highest over-the-month growth were heath care and professional and business services according to the October 4 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
The U.S. trade deficit reached $54.9 billion in August, up $0.9 billion from the revised July figure. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $207.9 billion for the month while imports rose $1.3 billion to $262.8 billion. The year-to-date deficit of goods and services was 7.1 percent higher than the same period in 2018 according to the October 4 joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.
U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter 2019 according to the September 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release. This was less than the first quarter 2019 increase of 3.1 percent.
Arizona state personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.3 percent in the second quarter 2019. This was the sixth highest increase among all states, with Texas increasing the most at 7.5 percent. The September 24 Bureau of Economic Analysis release reported that state personal income increased 5.4 percent in the second quarter nationally.
