by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
Current Data Releases as of July 5, 2019
Arizona had a 62 percent increase in the number of children between 1990 and 2017 compared to a 15 percent increase nationally according to the 2019 KIDS COUNT Data Book. The Annie E. Casey Foundation has been reporting on the condition of the nation’s children since 1990 and the latest report, released June 19, indicates that our state has a long way to go. Arizona ranked 46th, placing it among the bottom five states along with Nevada, Mississippi, Louisiana, and New Mexico (which ranked last). The top five states for 2019 were New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Jersey. (These were the same five states as last year with only the positions changing.) The rankings are a composite of 16 indicators, four each within these four categories: economic well-being, education, health, and family and community. Arizona made improvements in the standings for health and economic well-being, but was among the bottom five states in the areas of education and family and community. National trends in economic well-being also found in Arizona were a decrease in the percent of children living in poverty, decrease in parents that lack secure employment and a decrease in children living in households with a high housing cost burden. Another positive trend found in both Arizona and the nation was a decrease in the teen birth rate.
Arizona employment increased 2.6 percent over the year in May; more than a percentage point higher the national job growth of 1.5 percent. Industries adding the largest number of jobs over-the -year were education and health services followed closely by construction. Job growth for Arizona metropolitan areas in May: Lake Havasu City-Kingman 3.5 percent, Phoenix 3.2 percent, Yuma 2.9 percent, Tucson 1.7 percent, Prescott 0.2 percent, Sierra Vista-Douglas -0.3 percent, and Flagstaff -0.4 percent. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Arizona remained at 4.9 percent for May according to the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity June 20 release.
The Census Bureau released 2018 population estimates by demographic characteristics including age, race, ethnicity and gender on June 20. All states except for North Dakota had an increase in median age between 2010 and 2018. The median age for the U.S. was 38.2 years in 2018, one year more than it had been in 2010. Arizona’s median age went up 2 years from 35.9 in 2010 to 37.9 years in 2018. Within Arizona, La Paz was the oldest county with a median age of 56.7 years in 2018 while Yavapai had the largest increase in median age, going from 49.2 years in 2010 to 54.1 years in 2018. The median age of the Hispanic population in Arizona was 28 years in 2018, compared to 25.4 years in 2010. This was a larger increase than the nation experienced with a rise of 2.2 years in the median age. Median age does not show the whole picture, however, as an interesting report from the Census Bureau points out: https://census.gov/library/stories/2019/06/median-age-does-not-tell-the-whole-story.html.
Phoenix house prices gained 6.0 percent over-the-year in April. Las Vegas had the highest year-over-year gains of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices at 7.1 percent followed by Phoenix at 6.0 percent and Tampa at 5.6 percent. This was the third month in a row that these three cities had the highest gains. In comparison, U.S. national index gained 3.5 percent and the 20-city composite increased 2.5 percent, both of these were lower than the previous month. Seattle was notable based on the June 25 release in that its year-over-year change in April 2018 was among the highest at 13.1 percent but had 0.0 percent change for this April.
Arizona had the second-highest increase of state personal income in the first quarter 2019. Arizona’s personal income increased at a 5.5 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate, placing it just behind West Virginia at 5.6 percent. South Dakota was the only state that did not have an increase in personal income with a -0.6 percent change. The Bureau of Economic Analysis release from June 25 indicated that earnings and transfer receipts contributed to personal income growth nationally and in Arizona. All states had a decrease in dividends, interests, and rent for the quarter.
Real GDP for the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter 2019 according to the estimate released June 27 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP for the fourth quarter 2018 was 2.2 percent. The advanced estimate for second quarter 2019 will arrive July 26 along with the annual update of national income and products accounts covering data from 2014 to current.
The number of businesses with no paid employees increased 3.6 percent in the U.S. between 2016 and 2017. The increase was slightly more in Arizona at 3.9 percent according to data from the Census Bureau 2017 Nonemployer Statistics released June 27. Though the gain in the number of establishments was larger for Arizona, the increase in receipts was not. Receipts increased 5.6 percent nationally and 4.8 percent in Arizona. The transportation and warehousing sector had notable increases nationally and for the state, which includes subsectors related to rideshares and taxi and limousine services.
The U.S. trade deficit rose in May to $55.5 billion. Both exports and import increased over-the-month, yet imports rose at a larger pace. Exports were up $4.2 billion to $210.6 billion while imports rose $8.5 billion to $266.2 billion for the month. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit was 6.4 percent higher than the same period in 2018 according to the July 3 joint release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau.
U.S. nonfarm employment increased by 224,000 in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Professional and business services continued to be the industry with the greatest job growth for the month followed by health care and social assistance. Job gains averaged 171,000 per month for the last three months after April and May employment figures revised downward. The U.S. seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7 percent for June, according to the July 5 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
