Breakfast with the Economists presentation from May 30, 2019
Clouds on the horizon? Can the expansion last?
Tucson’s economy is currently on a nice roll. Job gains are coming at the fastest pace in more than a decade, contributing to wage and income gains that are gradually improving Tucson’s standard of living. However, there are clouds on the horizon. With the national economic expansion nearing record length, worries about a downturn next year have risen to prominence. At the same time, concerns about the labor market impacts of automation and artificial intelligence are gaining momentum. How long can our economic expansion last?
Presenters/Economists
Director, Economic and Business Research Center, and Eller Research Professor
George W. Hammond, Ph.D., brings a wealth of experience in state and local econometric forecasting and regional economic analysis, as well as, wide-ranging academic research interests to bear on his role as Director of the Economic and Business Research Center.
A specialist in econometric forecasting for over 19 years, George has designed, built, and used economic models to produce over 100 forecasts for state and local economies, and completed over 50 regional economic studies on topics including economic and workforce development, energy forecasting, and the impact of higher education on human capital accumulation. As director of EBRC’s Forecasting Project, each quarter, he estimates economic forecasts for Arizona, Phoenix, and Tucson covering key indicators such as jobs, population, income, sales, tax revenues, and residential construction activity.
These forecasts and reports reach thousands of business leaders, policymakers, and citizens each year through conferences, public presentations, publications, EBRC’s websites and social media, and the press. George is a frequent contributor to local and national news services. His analysis and commentary have been featured in such distinguished venues as the NBC Nightly News, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, and The New York Times.
In addition to directing the Center and spearheading EBRC’s Forecasting Project, George is also a research professor with academic research interests focusing on the determinants of local economic growth in the U.S., the impact of state and local policies on economic growth, and the contribution of higher education to local workforce development. His research has appeared in the top journals in his field including the Journal of Regional Science, The American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Contemporary Economic Policy, the International Regional Science Review, The Annals of Regional Science, Papers in Regional Science, Regional Studies, The Review of Regional Studies, and The Manchester School.
George holds a B.A. in economics from the University of Colorado and a Ph.D. in business economics from Indiana University.
Vice President and Director of Economic Research
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Sylvain Leduc is Executive Vice President and Director of Economic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In this role, Leduc oversees the development of key research inputs and analyses to inform the monetary policy decision-making process. Leduc also serves on the Bank’s Executive Committee in charge of strategic direction and policy for the 12th District. Previously, Leduc served as vice president of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Research and in 2018 as senior vice president and associate director of Economic Research.
In May 2016, Leduc was appointed deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, a position he held until July 2018. In this capacity, he was one of two deputy governors responsible for overseeing the Bank’s analysis and activities in promoting a stable and efficient financial system. As a member of the Bank’s Governing Council, he shared responsibility for decisions with respect to monetary policy and financial system stability and for setting the strategic direction of the Bank.
Leduc also worked as a senior economist in the Division of International Finance at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., and as a senior economist in Macroeconomic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Born in Montréal, Canada, Leduc earned a bachelor’s degree and master’s degree in economics from McGill University and a PhD in economics from the University of Rochester.
He served as editorial advisor for the Canadian Journal of Economics from 2010 to 2011.
Leduc’s research focus includes monetary policy, business cycles, and international finance.
Browse Leduc’s CV and research papers.
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