by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
Current data releases as of 10 August 2018
Arizona’s real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5% in the first quarter 2018, placing it among the top ten states with the highest increase of real GDP for the quarter. Washington had the highest increase of real GDP at 3.6%, while North Dakota was the only state with a decrease at -0.6% based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis July 24 release.
Arizona personal income rose at an annual rate of 5.5% in the first quarter of 2018, for the fifth fastest growth in the nation. This was better than the U.S. rate of 4.3%. Washington was the state with the highest growth in income at 7.4% while Idaho had the smallest increase at 2.0% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis June 21 release.
Housing affordability was lower in most Arizona metropolitan areas for the second quarter 2018. The U.S. housing affordability rate dropped to a ten-year low thanks to rising home prices and interest rates according to the August 9 National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index release. Nationally, 57.1% of new and existing homes bought in the second quarter were affordable for families earning a median income of $71,900. In comparison, the share of affordable homes in the first quarter 2018 was 61.6%. Only Flagstaff had an increase in the share of homes affordable for median income from one quarter to the next due to the median home price lowering there, placing affordability at 54.3%. The distinction of being the least affordable in the state fell to Prescott in the second quarter, with only 50.7%. Sierra Vista-Douglas had the highest affordability with 83.3% followed by Yuma at 74.5%, Tucson at 65.3%, Lake Havasu City-Kingman at 62.9%, and Phoenix at 61.3%.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in July, seasonally adjusted, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics August 10 release. Housing (shelter) was the primary contributor to the increase in prices for the month. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2% for the third month in a row. The annual inflation rate was 2.9%.
Arizona bankruptcies continue to climb, increasing 10.3% over July of last year. There were 1,419 bankruptcies filed in the state last month. Year to date, bankruptcies were up 3.6% in July with individual debt adjustment (Chapter 13) and liquidation (Chapter 7) both increasing. The Tucson office had the highest increase in filings year to date with an increase of 8.9%. This office represents Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz counties.
Producer prices were unchanged in July with final demand goods rising 0.1% and final demand services balancing that at -0.1%. Producer prices changed 3.3% over the year in July according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics August 9 release.
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment added 157,000 in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics August 3 Employment Situation report. Industries gaining the most jobs over the month were professional and business services, health care, and manufacturing. Employment increases averaged 224,000 over the last three months as May and June figures had upward revisions. The unemployment rate for the nation ticked down to 3.9%.
The U.S. trade deficit rose $3.2 billion to hit $46.3 billion for June. Exports lowered 0.7% to $213.8 billion while imports rose over the month to $260.2 billion. Year-to-date, the deficit of goods and services was 7.2% higher than the same period a year ago according to the August 3 joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.
The year-over-year change in home prices for Phoenix reached 7.3% in May according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices released July 31. This was nearly a percentage higher than the U.S. at 6.4%. The 20-city composite increased 6.5% over the year. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco once again had the highest house price gains, at 13.6%, 12.6%, and 10.9%, respectively.
Real GDP for the U.S. increased at an annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter 2018 according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 27. Another estimate based on more complete source data will be released August 29. Real GDP increased 2.2% in the first quarter 2018.
Current data releases as of 20 July 2018
Arizona remained among the lowest ranked states in the 2018 KIDS COUNT Data Book, released by the Annie E. Casey Foundation on June 27. Arizona ranked 45th, just above the bottom five states of Alaska, Nevada, Mississippi, Louisiana, and New Mexico (which ranked last). The top five states for 2018 were New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Iowa. The rankings are a composite of 16 indicators, four each within these four categories: economic well-being, education, health, and family and community. Arizona was among the bottom five states in the areas of economic well-being and family and community. Due to a change in methodology for one of the health indicators, the overall rankings are not comparable to previous years.
Arizona employment increased 2.6% over the year in June, a full percentage point higher the national change in employment. The two industries adding the largest number of jobs over the year were education and health services followed closely by construction. The unemployment rate for Arizona remained at 4.7% for June. Job growth for Arizona metropolitan areas in June: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, 4.0%; Phoenix, 3.1%; Prescott, 2.4%; Tucson, 2.1%; Flagstaff, 1.5%; Yuma, 1.0%; and Sierra Vista-Douglas, -0.9%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% over the month in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Gasoline, food, and shelter prices were all higher. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2% for the month. The annual inflation rate was 2.9% in June according to the July 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Producer prices increased 0.3% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Final demand goods rose 0.1% and final demand services rose 0.4% according to the July 11 Bureau of Labor Statistics release. The change in producer prices from 12 months ago, unadjusted, was 3.4%.
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased 213,000 in June according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics July 6 Employment Situation report, a 1.6% change in employment over the year. Industries with the most employment gains over the month were professional and business services, health care, and manufacturing. Retail trade lost jobs in June after gaining jobs in May. Employment increases averaged 211,000 over the last three months after April and May figures had upward revisions. The unemployment rate for the nation moved up to 4.0%.
The U.S. trade deficit continued to move down for the third month in a row. The deficit was $43.1 billion in May compared to the revised figure of $46.1 billion in April. Both exports and imports rose over the month – exports increased $4.1 billion while imports increased $1.1 billion. Year-to-date, the deficit of goods and services was 7.9% higher than the same period a year ago according to the July 6 joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.
Arizona bankruptcy filings numbered 1,453 in June, a slight increase over the 1,440 filed in June of last year. Year-to-date bankruptcies in the state were 2.5% over the same period last year, increasing 0.9% for the Phoenix office and 7.6% for the Tucson office while decreasing 1.4% for the Yuma office. The Phoenix office handles Apache, Coconino, Gila, Maricopa, Navajo and Yavapai counties. Tucson office covers Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. La Paz, Mohave, and Yuma counties report to the Yuma office.
The year-over-year price change in home prices in Phoenix was 6.8% for April according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices released June 26. This was higher than the U.S. with a 6.4% change and the 20-city composite with 6.6% change. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco continued to have the highest house price gains, all with more than 10% increases in prices.
The Census Bureau released 2016 Nonemployer Statistics on June 21. This annual release provides information on businesses with no paid employees such as self-employed individuals, sole proprietors and partnerships. Nonemployer establishments grew by 3.5% from 2015 to 2016 in Arizona compared to 2.0% in the U.S. Arizona also had larger growth in total receipts than the nation, increasing 3.0% compared to 1.5%. The fastest growing industry for nonemployer establishments in both the U.S. and Arizona has been the same for the last few years: transportation and warehousing. This industry increased 22.0% nationally and 33.5% in Arizona during 2016 thanks mainly to taxi and limousine services and other transit and ground passenger transportation.
Arizona is becoming both older and more diverse according to the latest Census population estimates on age, gender, race and ethnicity released June 21. The median age in Arizona was 37.7 in 2017 compared to 35.9 in 2010. Asians were the fastest growing racial group in the nation, a fact represented in Arizona as well. Since 2010, the Asian population has grown 32.8% in Arizona followed by a 29.3% increase in those of two of more races and a 25.0% increase in the black or African American population. The total population of Arizona increased 9.8% during that time. The breakdown of race and ethnicity in Arizona for 2017 was roughly 54.9% non-Hispanic white, 31.4% Hispanic, 4.3% black or African American, 4.0% American Indian or Alaska Native, 3.3% Asian, 2.0% two or more races, and 0.2% Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander. The population of Arizona ages 39 and younger were less than 50% non-Hispanic white in 2017.
