by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
Current data releases as of 18 May 2018
Real personal income for states increased 1.1% on average in 2016 as reported in the May 17 Bureau of Economic Analysis release. Arizona real personal income grew 2.6%. The percent change in real personal income for Arizona metropolitan areas for 2016: Flagstaff 2.8%, Lake Havasu City-Kingman 2.4%, Phoenix 2.6%, Prescott 2.7%, Sierra Vista-Douglas 1.0%, Tucson 1.8% and Yuma 6.0%. The report also includes regional price parities by state, indicating how much higher or lower prices in each state are compared the U.S. average. Arizona prices were 4.1% lower than the nation.
Job growth in Arizona was 2.3% over the year in April according to the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity May 17 release, remaining above the U.S. at 1.6%. Education and health services added the most jobs over the year followed closely by construction. Government and information both lost jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9% in April. Year-over-year employment changes for Arizona metros: Phoenix, Prescott, and Lake Havasu City-Kingman, 2.8%; Tucson, 1.4%; Flagstaff, 0.9%; Yuma, -0.4%; and Sierra Vista-Douglas, -1.2%.
Housing affordability was better in all Arizona metropolitan areas except for Tucson in the first quarter 2018 compared to the fourth quarter 2017 according to information released by the National Association of Home Builders on May 10. Housing affordability is the share of houses sold over the quarter that are affordable for the median family income of an area. Incomes rose nationally and in Arizona, improving affordability. The trick for Tucson, however, was that home prices also rose. All other Arizona metros had steady or even decreasing home prices over the quarter. In the U.S. 61.6% of homes sold were affordable for families earning the U.S. median income for the first quarter 2018. Two Arizona metros had lower affordability than the nation, Prescott (55.2%) and Flagstaff (48.7%). The share of affordable homes in the rest of the state were: 89.4% in Sierra Vista-Douglas, 80.4% in Yuma, 67.7% in Tucson, 67.0% in Lake Havasu City-Kingman, and 65.0% in Phoenix.
Arizona bankruptcy filings were 1,481 in April, slightly higher than the March figure of 1,426 and 2.5% higher than they were in April of last year. The Phoenix office had 2.0% fewer filings compared to the same month a year ago, while the number of bankruptcies in Tucson office were up 14.0% and the Yuma office increased 9.4%. The Phoenix office handles Apache, Coconino, Gila, Maricopa, Navajo and Yavapai counties. Tucson office covers Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal and Santa Cruz counties. La Paz, Mohave, and Yuma counties report to the Yuma office. Year-to-date bankruptcies in the state are 0.9% over the same period last year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% over the month in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Gasoline prices continued their up and down pattern, this time increasing 3.0% over the month. Gasoline and shelter prices were the primary reason for the rise in the overall index. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1% for the month. The annual inflation rate was 2.5% in April according to the May 10 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
Producer prices increased 0.1% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the smallest increase this year. Final demand goods were flat and final demand services rose 0.1% according to the May 9 Bureau of Labor Statistics release. The change in producer prices from 12 months ago, unadjusted, was 2.6%.
Real GDP in Arizona increased 3.1% for the fourth quarter 2017 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This ranked 11th highest among all states according to the May 4 Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP by state release. Change in real GDP by state for the fourth quarter 2017 ranged from 5.2% in Texas to -1.3% in North Dakota.
U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased 164,000 in April according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics May 4 Employment Situation report. The three-month average in employment increases was 208,000. Industries with the most employment gains for the month were professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining. The unemployment rate for the nation moved down to 3.9% in April from 4.1% were it had stayed for several months.
The U.S. trade deficit was smaller in March at $49.0 billion, down $8.8 billion from the revised February figure. Exports increased 2.0% to $208.5 billion while imports were 1.8% lower at $257.5 billion. The year-to-date deficit of goods and services was $25.5 billion over the same period a year ago according to the May 3 joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.
U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018 based on the advance estimate released April 27 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A second estimate for the first quarter will be released on May 30. Real GDP increased 2.9% in the fourth quarter 2017.
The April 24 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index release indicated that the one-year change in Phoenix house prices for February was 6.4%, slightly above the U.S. increase of 6.3%. House prices in Seattle (12.7%), Las Vegas (11.6%) and San Francisco (10.1%) rose the highest out of the cities tracked, and the 20-city composite had an increase of 6.8%. The slowest growth was in Washington, D.C. at 2.4%.
